Java has had a bad start and has a bad image, but it appears to change as also shows during JavaOne 2009. The changes with Java 5 and Java 6 are starting to show for the better. But the most important highlights for now are JavaFX, project Jigsaw and the Java Store. If I needed to choose between .NET or Java for a new project, then I would put my money on Java.
The most important news may be that Classpath is going to disappear and that you can strip down Java to only ship what you need. Here comes project Jigsaw into the picture to get Java on every computer, phone and appliciance and in a shape it should be in for that situation. With a live presentation of a working television that was able to run JavaFX it may become clear where the newly announces Java Store fits in.
It all starts to fit together with upcoming NetBeans 6.7 when you take project Kenai and Zembly into account. There are developer tools, a place to host your development and application, a place to sell it and also a device to run it on. Is Java going to change television as it did with mobile phones?